Rookie Report: Playoff Contributors

It isn’t easy for rookies to crack the rotation for contending teams. The stakes are often simply too high to allow for a young player’s necessary margin of error. The BBALLBREAKDOWN Rookie Report continues with a look at some of the rookies contributing to possible playoff teams.

Justise Winslow – Miami Heat

Justise Winslow continues to earn big minutes for the Heat built on his defensive prowess. With the core of the perimeter continuing to age around him, Winslow has been tasked with taking on big defensive assignments night after night. He’s already comfortable navigating the pick and roll, even against some of the best offensive players in the league.

Although helped by poor execution on the screening action, you can see how Winslow is a master at moving his feet to stay in front of the dribble. It’s rare that a player can beat him solely off the bounce given Winslow’s considerable mobility. His defensive shot chart continues to tell that story as offensive players are finding it hard to score when he is the closest defender.

Winslow will continue to be a mainstay in the rotation for the rest of the regular season. The playoffs might be a different story if he doesn’t improve offensively. His usage rate of 12.2 percent, according to basketball-reference, is one of the lowest among qualified rookies since 2010-2011. The Heat don’t need him to score. They probably don’t want him to use too many possessions with the offensive weapons around him. But that will be exploited in the playoffs and could limit his time on the court.

The key for him the rest of the season is to become a better shooter. He’s connecting on three-pointers at a paltry 26.5 percent rate, and even worse, making only 68.5 percent of his free throws. Even if he does flip the switch or run a hot streak to boost his percentages, teams will be okay with giving Winslow open jump shots, even if he hits 35 percent of them. This will slow down the rest of the offense and make it difficult for the Heat to be efficient.

Winslow will stay on the floor during the regular season but Erik Spoelstra will need to pull out all his creative juices on offense if he wants to keep Winslow on the floor come playoff time.

Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings

Willie Cauley-Stein isn’t one of the most skilled rookies, but he is filling a needed role for the surprising Sacramento Kings. He can finish at the rim, converting offensive rebounds and dump-off passes from the dunker position along the baseline. He is shooting 59.8 percent from the floor, nearly all of which come at the rim.

He doesn’t need to do much more then finish in the paint playing alongside DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo. His hard dives to the rim off ball screens open the floor for his teammates, and when the help defense leaves him, he puts himself in the right position to receive a pass or grab the rebound.

What is becoming clear is how good the front court duo of Cousins and Cauley-Stein is as the season wears on. It’s usually hard to play two big men together for long stretches, but neither player can be put into boxes. Cousins is the stretch player offensively while Cauley-Stein takes on the challenge of guarding stretch big men. Cauley-Stein defends the fewest shots at the rim of all seven-footers playing at least 19 minutes, but that’s because he’s often guarding the three-point line.

Without both on the floor, the Kings are deficient in critical big man skills. The drop-off to Kosta Koufos is huge and leaves a gap on either end of the floor when either Boogie or WCS is off the floor. The Kings’ net rating is higher when both are on the floor then when either is on the bench. This is somewhat unexpected based on how lineups are structured in this year’s NBA but it shows just how much versatility both players have.

Cauley-Stein may already be close to his ceiling as a player, but his skill-set will always be valuable. He’s a big reason why the Kings are in contention for a playoff spot and his complementary role alongside Cousins will continue to be relied upon by George Karl.

Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons

Stanley Johnson’s efficiency numbers are poor but the rookie has stayed in the good graces of coach Stan Van Gundy. His overall effective field goal percentage is 44.7 percent, one of only 34 rookies to have a percentage this low since 2010-11. He has seen a rise to a more respectable, but still poor, 47.9 percent in January. He is able to stay on the floor partly due to Jodie Meeks’ foot injury squeezing the projected rotation, but more so due to his innate ability to be in position to make the right play.

Van Gundy has praised his basketball IQ saying “He’s a smart kid. If you go in and do stuff on film or in a walk-through or on the board, he knows what he’s supposed to do. Now it’s gaining the experience to be able to focus on those things and react in the course of a game.” Although this hasn’t translated to made shots, those should come as he becomes more comfortable on the court.

The biggest short-term stride he could make is becoming better at shots in the paint. He is able to get to the rim but isn’t yet proficient at finishing once he gets there, making just 49.1 percent of shots within eight feet of the rim while shooting just 1.4 free throw per game. He can learn to either be craftier with his rim finishes by avoiding the defense with a side step or by hanging in the air or by shooting floaters over the defense or he’ll need to absorb contact to get to the line. The majority of his shots have come in the paint, according to the below chart from NBA Savant, so this skill will be paramount for his development.

His motor, intensity and court awareness has endeared him to Van Gundy so far this season. He’s just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential and there is a possible star underneath his raw surface. It will be interesting to see how SVG manages the rotation if and when Meeks comes back. Johnson has made his case to stay on the floor. Improving his efficiency will only solidify it.

Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

After missing 21 games due to a thumb injury in November and December, Myles Turner returned to the Indiana rotation and put himself back in the conversation for steal of the 2015 draft alongside Winslow and Chicago’s Bobby Portis. He’s averaging 11.2 points on 58.8 percent shooting with 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game since returning from injury. This has included some monster performance along the way, especially in his past five games.

In the past five, he’s seen a major boost in his point production to 18.6 points per game. Turner moves exceptionally well without the ball and has some off-ball skills of a savvy veteran. He puts himself into passing lines along the baseline, cutting from side to side based on how he sees the play develop. He also picks the perfect time to seal his defender and post up, where he has an advanced post-up game for a player of his age.

There were definite question marks about his offensive game and the ability for him to translate some of his skills to the next level which makes this start so promising. The bigger question before the season centered around his running style which had the potential to limit his athleticism and cause injuries. DraftExpress took us inside the process of evaluating his movement to improve upon his gait and it appears to have paid off so far. Turner has no trouble getting up and down the floor in transition, is able to play extended minutes and has had no lower body injuries so far.

After moving on from Roy Hibbert and David West this off-season, the Pacers found one of their big men of the future in Turner. With his breakout five game performance, he’ll start creeping up opponent’s scouting reports so he may find it harder to score as defenses become more familiar with his game. There is no denying his offensive talent and the Pacers seem to have found a great player to play alongside Paul George as they rebuild their core.

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