BBALLBREAKDOWN’s Rookie Report: New Year’s Resolutions

Emmanuel Mudiay’s New Year’s Resolution? Improving Pick and Roll decisions (Photo: John Geliebter – USA TODAY Sports)

With over a third of the season completed, some rookies are getting a feel for the NBA game and becoming more comfortable on the court. A handful are seeing an increase in minutes due to either rotation needs, injuries ahead of them, or teams shifting focus to the future. The rookie season is just barely enough time for each player to get their ahead above water, so you can usually forget adding many new skills to the fold. That isn’t to say players can’t try to improve current skills the rest of the season.

Our next installment in our Rookie Report looks at some New Year’s resolutions for some prominent rookies.

Emmanuel Mudiay: Improve Pick And Roll Feel

Charged with leading the Denver Nuggets offense right away as a rookie, Emmanuel Mudiay has had his share of struggles as a point guard. He’s had issues in nearly all facets of his offensive game and his 38 percent true shooting percentage would be one of the lowest all-time for qualified rookie guards.

These struggles have manifested the most when he tries to lead the pick and roll, where he’s demonstrated a complete lack of feel for the action on the floor when he tries to initiate offense out of a ball screen. According to Synergy Sports stats on NBA.com, Mudiay has the lowest points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler of any player with 150 possessions. At just 0.51 PPP, this is .18 PPP less than the player slotted just above him, showing just how bad he has been compared to other high usage point guards.

His turnover percentage on these play types is also by far the greatest at 27 percent. He is struggling to make the right reads against any type of defensive alignment. He’ll drive when he should shoot, pass when he should drive, and force the action when he should back it out. A long super cut could be made of his ball screen struggles so instead, just one play will be highlighted.

On this play, Mudiay begins the action by taking a wide path around the screen, failing to utilize it properly. He fails to run Ricky Rubio anywhere close to the screen and gives Kevin Garnett no reason to step off Kenneth Faried and open up the roll man. Mudiay then makes the wrong decision to drive against Rubio, who is playing several feet off him and conceding a jump shot. Mudiay compounds his mistake by forcing a spin move into traffic and commits the silly turnover. This is just a microcosm of the poor decision making of Mudiay in the pick and roll.

This improvement won’t come over night. But the positive spin for Mudiay is that the Nuggets are going to allow him to learn on the court and he’s played the second most minutes per game of any rookie. This feel for the game will come with experience and he’ll hopefully begin to improve at learning how to best attack the defense out of the pick and roll.

(Photo: Mark L. Baer – USA TODAY Sports)

Kelly Oubre: Smarter Off-ball Movement

With the Washington Wizards being decimated by the injury bug and looking for a spark, Kelly Oubre has seen his minutes spike in December to 15.5 per game. He’s shown flashes of potential as a three-and-D (and possibly more) guy, drawing some of the toughest defensive assignments on the night while converting 43.2 percent of his three-point attempts on the season.

He’s shown a desire to move off the ball, working to cut into open space when his defender leaves him open. Too often, he’ll cut into open space but not put himself in a passing lane to receive the ball. He also has a tendency to mistime his cuts, either moving a beat too early or too late, missing the open window of opportunity. The cutting action is more Oubre looking to make the “right” move on the floor rather than score. Once he gets his timing down and angles right to cut into the open space in a position that allows his teammates to deliver him the ball, he will be able to get some easy finishes at the rim.

He has struggled at the rim early on, converting 47.2 percent on shots within eight feet according to NBA.com. He should grow into a better finisher once he adds strength and becomes more used to absorbing contact from NBA big men. Any easy look at the rim helps, and learning to be a better mover off the ball should lead to some bunnies. He’s halfway there with his motor without the ball, the rest should come in time.

(Photo: Tommy Gilligan – USA TODAY Sports)

Frank Kaminsky: Be Confident In Outside Shot

When word broke that the Charlotte Hornets turned down a mega-offer for the number nine pick in the 2015 draft, there was a heap of pressure on Frank Kaminsky’s shoulders to produce from the get-go. His season started slow, but has picked up substantially as of late with his usage rising to 16.7 percent in December. At the same time, his three-point attempts per 36 minutes have stayed relatively constant, hovering around his season average of 4.2 attempts.

Kaminsky was drafted because of his shooting ability, and he needs to have confidence in his shot to contribute to the Hornets offense. His transition to the NBA three-point line has been ordinary, with him knocking down 34.4 percent of his attempts. Even still, he needs to be fearless in continuing to shoot from beyond the arc and force defenses to guard him.

With Kaminsky’s three-point percentage dipping in December, he is beginning to look to drive the ball more when he catches the ball spotting up. He is a plodding, straight-line driver who needs to perfect his shot to supplement his driving ability to complement his jump shot. Kaminsky is still learning how to best attack the defense and deciding when to drive to the rim and when he needs to pull up.

In the meantime, he needs to have some confidence in his jump shot and not be afraid to let it fly when defenses leave him open. At times, Kaminsky is hesitating on the catch, passing up open opportunities. He isn’t in danger of becoming a ‘record scratch’ player (as Nate Duncan likes to call them) but he is starting to pass up shots that he could get off over smaller defenders or before the defender closes out. His percentage should rise as he gets more repetitions from NBA distance as long as he has the confidence to continue shooting. The Hornets are relying on him to take these shots to keep the offense flowing.

(Photo: Mark D. Smith – USA TODAY Sports)

Larry Nance Jr.: Defensive Awareness

The Lakers defense as a whole can be described as a hot mess, at best. This isn’t a surprise considering the roster makeup, which includes several rookies, a de facto rookie in Julius Randle, and a few guards who are allergic to defense. Larry Nance Jr. is no exception to this fiasco and he will need to make an impact defensively to be a positive player in the league.

With his recent insertion into the starting lineup, the Lakers are taking a hard look at their 27th overall draft pick and whether he can be a building block for the future. Nance has made a living so far as a junkyard dog offensively, finishing his chances that are created by his teammates. He’s provided a similar level of energy on the defensive end and as we head into 2016, he can put a more concerted effort into learning the nuances of playing sound defense.

It’s to be expected of rookies, but Nance has had looked unsure of himself on the defensive end. This is split between not knowing when to make the right rotation and trying too hard to make a play, which ends up taking himself out of it. He gambles a bit too much for steals and blocks when guarding the post instead of playing straight up against his opponent. This has led to conceding layup after layup by Nance after trying, and missing, to steal the entry pass or falling for pump fakes. He can learn to play more within himself and just force difficult shots when he can’t create a turnover.

Off-ball defensive awareness should come with experience and should also be a point of emphasis for Nance the rest of the season. He can improve on his pick and roll coverages, understanding how best to hedge the ball screen and drop back in coverage to slow down the attack. When he steps out to hedge the screen, he often improperly commits to the ball handler, either by stepping out too high or not enough which gets the ball moving down hill. He’s working hard on his rotations but the knowledge isn’t quite there for him to know when and where to rotate at all times.

The energy level is there for Nance on the defensive end which is a positive. Being a strong defensive player will be key for his career and his commitment on that side is a good start. Now, he needs to become more aware of the action around him, knowing how to best make an impact. That doesn’t always mean creating a turnover, it can just mean forcing a bad shot. If Nance can pick up that skill while improving his off-ball coverages, he’ll be well on his way to be a defensive asset.

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